Saturday, September 18, 2010

Forecasts, Estimates and Statistics

Okay here is the deal, we keep on hearing all kinds of forecasts, estimates and statistics and we are kind of getting lost in all of these. One person’s forecasts can be another person’s accurate description of something. And will all these forecasts, estimates and statistics there is a highly great chance that they can and are manipulated on a daily basis. Not only by individual politicians but also by government and private industry for their own purposes just to gain support among public who are highly susceptible to it.

Take for example, the unemployment numbers, the only numbers to be believed are the government ones but they don’t show the true picture. Same is true of the forecasts and statistics for the deficit which changes frequently and is highly susceptible to manipulation even though they may be released by a non partisan group. Same can be said about the gimmickry that is used to balance the state budgets with estimates and forecasts that are subject to scrutiny if somebody cares to do it. The point I am trying to make here is that all these forecasts, estimates and statistics should be viewed with who is trying to present it and what purpose and not be swayed by the any of them because they can be changed, challenged and manipulated by anyone for their own purpose.

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