Sunday, February 11, 2018

The resurgent Kabul attacks

Recently there has been resurgent of attacks in Kabul killing more than hundred people and showing the continued threat of Taliban and Islamic State (IS) strength despite the presence of Afghan and thousands of NATO forces trying to maintain peace in the country.  The attacks came in within a week’s time and show the utter failure of the U.S.  trained Afghan forces and the intelligence apparatus they are responsible for. This war has become the longest war in U.S. History and despite what the candidate Trump said during election campaign, this war has now become his war as he has authorized sending more troops and give the go ahead to pursue Taliban wherever they operate which is also in Pakistan. The U.S. being frustrated in its effort to bring peace to Afghanistan is lashing out at Pakistan despite the fact that Pakistan is also a victim of terrorism and may not have that kind of leverage with the Taliban to end the war.
Even if Pakistan does have the leverage, the increasing presence of IS militants is also complicating the peace process in the country. The U.S. relying on India to increase its presence in Afghanistan is also not likely to materialize as Pakistan sees much threat in this scenario and also India does not want to send its troops and get bogged down in a country which dislikes foreigners be it Pakistan or India. The best scenario for the U.S. is to cut its losses and leave Afghanistan as the war will not likely be a win for the U.S. But here is the problem, a recent study suggests that Afghan forces will crumble in a matter of months if the U.S. leaves but it will have to leave to make the Afghans realize that it is in their own benefit to bring peace to the country if they want to get rid of the perpetual cycle of violence they are in now.
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